US Election News and Blog Activity
An All-Out Attack on ‘Conservative Misinformation’
October 31st, 2008 By JACQUES STEINBERG Media Matters has given the Democrats a rapid-fire, technologically sophisticated means to call out what it considers misinformation on air or in print.Democrats Take Page From Their Rival’s Playbook
October 31st, 2008 By LESLIE WAYNE Democrats are exploiting a skill long mastered by the Republicans: microtargeting, the ability to find pockets of support by analyzing personal data about voters.McCain, in Ohio Rally, Enlists Schwarzenegger
October 31st, 2008 By ELISABETH BUMILLER Senator John McCain used the political wattage of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to reach out to Ohio independents at a rally in Columbus.Obama Seeking Votes in Republican-Rich Soil
October 31st, 2008 By JEFF ZELENY Barack Obama’s visit to Springfield, Mo., underscores a closing strategy of trying to increase Democratic vote totals in all regions of the country.White House Memo: A Presidential Vanishing Act, by Design
October 31st, 2008 By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG Republican candidates have long not wanted to be seen with President Bush. But with the election just days away, it seems that they do not want him to be seen, period.Study: Media coverage has favored Obama campaign (AP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AP - John McCain supporters who believe they haven't gotten a fair shake from the media during the Republican's candidacy against Barack Obama have a new study to point to.
French cook up for US election - BBC News
October 31st, 2008 us election news - Google News BBC News | French cook up for US election BBC News, UK - 7 minutes ago US presidential burgers are on the menu at an upmarket Parisian hotel named after the Marquis de Lafayette, who fought alongside George Washington in the ... |
On Religion: In Untruths About Obama, Echoes of a Distant Time
October 31st, 2008 By SAMUEL G. FREEDMAN The aura of anti-Muslim agitation that has swirled around Barack Obama resembles the smearing of Alfred E. Smith during the presidential campaign of 1928.Dot Earth: Science Advice for the Next President
October 31st, 2008 By ANDREW C. REVKIN Nearly 180 organizations are urging the next president to appoint a White House science adviser by Inauguration Day.Murdoch says Obama win could worsen financial crisis: report (AFP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AFP - Global media tycoon Rupert Murdoch has warned that a win by Democratic hopeful Barack Obama in next week's US election could worsen the world financial crisis, a report said Saturday.
Slovenians Pick Obama in US Election - Angus Reid Global Monitor
October 31st, 2008 us election news - Google News Columbus Dispatch | Slovenians Pick Obama in US Election Angus Reid Global Monitor, Canada - 6 hours ago US president George W. Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The US presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4. On Oct. 29, Obama vowed to lead ... Population changes likely to influence US election Gulf Times Early voting begins in US election CCTV Early voting revolution transforms US voting strategies United Press International Canada.com - AFP all 931 news articles |
Obama Holds 6-Point Average Lead Over McCain in National Polls (Bloomberg)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections Bloomberg - Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama is holding an average lead of 6 percentage points over John McCain in national polls with three days left in the presidential campaign.Obama-McCain Duel Spurs Charges of Voter Fraud, Suppression (Bloomberg)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections Bloomberg - Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The intensity of the presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain has spurred legal maneuvering and a barrage of charges of fraud and voter suppression in states that may determine the result if the election is close.Obama says top priority is unclogging capitalism (AFP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AFP - Democrat Barack Obama has vowed to avert a "potential meltdown" in the clogged financial system as he listed his top priorities if he is elected America's first black president next week.
Voter turnout expected to be highest in decades (AP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AP - Voter turnout will be the highest in decades, dwarfing recent presidential elections, experts predict.
Obama pushes for McCain territory
October 31st, 2008 BBC News | In Depth | US elections 2008 | World Edition Democrat Barack Obama extends his campaign ads into his rival's home territory, as John McCain campaigns in Ohio.McCain set for ‘Saturday Night Live’ cameo (AP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AP - My friends, it's John McCain, live from New York, just three days before the election. Aides to the Republican presidential candidate said Friday that McCain will make a detour from battleground states to appear on "Saturday Night Live," the late-night show that has been a must-watch for many during the political season.
Democrats positioned for big House gains (AP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections AP - Democrats are positioned to make big gains in the House in next week's elections, adding 20 or more seats to their majority.Democrats striving for lock on Senate control (AP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AP - A usually elusive 60-40 Senate majority is the Democrats' target in Tuesday's election. They are certain to make gains even if they fall short of those magic numbers needed to break Republican chokeholds on their agenda.
Montana gun exec’s support of Obama prompts uproar (AP)
October 31st, 2008 Yahoo! News: Elections
AP - The board of directors for a small Montana gun manufacturer asked the company's president to resign after word that he supports Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama led to calls on pro-gun Web sites to boycott the company's products.
Could McCain still win?
October 31st, 2008 Michael TomaskySo as we reach the finish line: John McCain's pollster declares himself satisfied that the race is functionally tied in the important states; Barack Obama says "we're winning"; while liberals across the US speak fretfully in the subjunctive tense, daring not to tempt fate by saying anything like "when Obama is president".
Are the liberal caution and the McCain quasi-optimism actually warranted? Is there any way the Republican could still win this thing?
The answer mathematically is... yes, he could. And it needn't even hinge on eking out a win in Pennsylvania.
Consider the following electoral-college permutations. Obama wins all the states John Kerry won in 2004, for 252 electoral votes, along with Iowa and New Mexico, two states where he appears to be comfortably ahead and would add 12 to his total for 264 (270 is needed to win). But suppose it stops there and every other battleground state tumbles toward McCain - Ohio and Florida, where Obama's leads are fairly narrow, but also Virginia and Colorado, where his leads are larger but not insurmountable. These are, after all, states that are long accustomed to backing the Republican candidate. In this scenario, McCain wins 274-264.
Let's go it one better. Say McCain does manage a victory in Pennsylvania, where his campaign is circulating fliers comparing him to Hillary Clinton, that seductress of the state's oft-limned blue-collar voters. If he did snare that state's 21 electoral votes, McCain could then afford to lose Virginia (13) and Colorado (nine). Still holding Ohio, Florida etc, he would win 273-265.
Let's try one final scenario. Penn-sylvania ends up in the Obama column, as does Colorado. But McCain's pollster has recent spoken of mysterious "internal numbers" showing Iowa (seven votes) to be somewhat up for grabs. So an electoral cocktail that includes Iowa and Virginia but not Pennsylvania or Colorado would give McCain 272 electoral votes and the presidency.
Though mathematically possible, how likely are any of these scenarios?
Throughout this election, I've relied most regularly on the websites RealClearPolitics and fivethirtyeight.com for polling averages, so let's see what they have to say about the margins in these states as of yesterday. In Pennsylvania, both have Obama ahead by 9.8%. Making up 10% in four days would be a remarkable feat, though not unheard of. Obama is six points ahead in Virginia and Colorado, and has a 11% lead in Iowa. Now let's recall that all the above scenarios are possible only if McCain wins Ohio. In what we call the Buckeye state, the websites have Obama ahead by about 5%.
McCain doesn't have a lead in any major poll in any of these states. He would truly need a tsunami to hit that would shift the race in his direction by five to 10 points in the final days - a swing very nearly without precedent.
But still, Obama supporters' emotional continuum runs from cautious to outright neurotic. Liberal election anxiety is grounded in the hard experiences of 2000 and 2004. We tend to assume that any mention by the Republicans of "taxes", "terrorism" and "socialism" will send middle America dashing fearfully into their arms. We suspect that those same Americans will wake next Tuesday morning and say to themselves: "It's just now dawned on me that that fellow is black; I can't possibly vote for him."
The former hasn't happened, and the latter is increasingly implausible. As the days dwindle down to a precious few, as Kurt Weill put it, caution is well-advised. But neurosis would seem to be an indulgence. It's a good thing that the candidate himself doesn't suffer from it.
• Read Michael Tomasky's blog and watch his video commentary at guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/michaeltomasky
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2008 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds10/31/08: Obama To Run TV Ads in Arizona, North Dakota, Georgia
October 31st, 2008 USAElectionPolls.com The Politico is reporting that Obama will be running TV ads in Arizona, North Dakota, and Georgia. If you wonder why, just check out the polls. The race is tight in Arizona. The weekly average shows that McCain is only 4% ahead in his home state. Research 2000 also shows that McCain would lose his re-election bid in 2010 to the current Governor Napolitano in a hypothetical matchup.Washington Times Loses Seat on Obama Plane
October 31st, 2008 The TrailSchwazenegger Derides Obama as a ‘Skinny’ Wealth-Spreader
October 31st, 2008 The TrailUS election 2008: From the web to the Oval Office - Telegraph.co.uk
October 31st, 2008 us election news - Google News FOXNews | US election 2008: From the web to the Oval Office Telegraph.co.uk, United Kingdom - 5 hours ago This US election has seen more online activity than ever before. Tom O'Meara assesses the effects The 2008 US election promises freshness and change. ... Population changes likely to influence US election Gulf Times Early voting revolution transforms US voting strategies United Press International 12 million already voted in US election: gov't figures AFP Radio France Internationale - Design Week all 985 news articles |
Troops split on next commander-in-chief
October 31st, 2008 Martin Chulov in Tarmeyah Soldiers of 14th infantry harbour mixed opinions about Bush administration after 11 month tour of dutyUnderdog snaps and snarls as he enters the final round
October 31st, 2008 Ed PilkingtonIn three days' time, by most reckonings, John McCain's most cherished ambition - one that has absorbed him for the best part of a decade, the defining goal of a lifetime in politics - will go up in smoke. He faces a defeat on Tuesday that some experts predict will be solid, others catastrophic. No presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1980 has overturned such a poll deficit at this late stage and won the White House.
With such grim prospects, McCain could be forgiven for spending his final days on the campaign trail bemoaning his fate, but there was no sign of any weakness of purpose in the past week. Last Tuesday he was on stage in Fayetteville, North Carolina, shaking his fist not up at the sky but out towards the packed crowd, exhorting his followers never to give up hope, never to give up the fight.
There was an urgency, an energy, to McCain that hadn't been seen before. His running mate, Sarah Palin, may be a self-declared "lipstick-wearing pitbull", but this week he proved himself a wiry Jack Russell terrier, snapping at the heels of his Democratic opponent.
"I'm an American and I chose to fight!" Snap! "America is worth fighting for!" Snap! "Nothing is inevitable here - we don't hide from history, we make history!" Snap! Snap!
This unexpected side grew more pronounced as the final week of campaigning progressed, on a trail that took us from Fayetteville, with its large military population, through the Cuban exile haven of Miami, Florida, and on to the rustic towns in the crucial battleground state of Ohio. With defeat looming, and an ugly blame game already bubbling up within his party, McCain's spirits appear to have soared in inverse proportion to his declining poll ratings.
As one placard, held by a supporter in the aptly named Ohio town of Defiance, put it: "Mac is back." Yes, he is back, but not in the way the supporter meant it.
McCain is back in his comfort zone - fulfilling his traditional role as the underdog. "I think he enjoys the underdog role," said Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a Republican congressman who campaigned alongside McCain in Miami.
Turning adversity into opportunity has been a running theme, not just of this election but of the Republican candidate's life. When he was snared in the Keating Five political funding scandal in the late 1980s, he reinvented himself as an anti-corruption crusader and salvaged his reputation; his defeat against George Bush in the 2000 primaries was converted into a positive by spawning his current image as a maverick; after he ran out of money and was on the verge of giving up his second run on the White House last summer he rallied in a swing through New Hampshire. Now he is at it again, staring oblivion in the face yet drawing succour from it. "The pundits have written us off just like they have several times before. They were wrong then and they are wrong now," he told the faithful in Miami's Little Havana.
His team insists there is method in his madness. Bill McInturff, who conducts private polls for McCain every day in 14 battleground states, circulated a memo this week suggesting the race was tightening and Obama's lead in several states now fell within the margin of error. McCain was also gaining ground among three crucial demographic groups - men without university degrees, poorer women and rural voters.
The plucky comments coming from the McCain camp, therefore, may be more than mere whistling in the wind.
One aide said: "Sure we've had ups and downs, but the senator is confident, the staff are confident, and the campaign is ready for victory next week."
The most extravagant chutzpah came from McCain's senatorial friend Lindsey Graham, who bragged to the rally in North Carolina that he would take on and beat swimmer Michael Phelps before Obama ever won the state - a brave wager, given that he cannot swim.
But in reality there are some hard truths. That McCain devoted most of his final week to North Carolina, Florida and Ohio in itself told a story. All three were won by Bush in 2004 - and North Carolina has been solidly Republican since 1976 - so the deployment was purely defensive. Pennsylvania is the only state won four years ago by John Kerry in which McCain is still on the offensive.
Then there is the extraordinary inequality in resources. Obama has poured more than $270m (£170m) into TV advertising - more than twice as much as McCain. Republicans are as aware of these disparities as anybody else. Interviews with loyalists in all three states uncovered intense anxieties that their 30-year dominance is about to be swept aside. Javier Souto, an elected official in south Florida, said he was concerned that the alliance that formed the base of the party was breaking up. "The Democrats have been in disarray for many years. It's a pretty clear risk that the same could now happen to us," he said.
Others were more intemperate. Christina Shores, a campaign volunteer in North Carolina, was born in Cork and raised in London; she emigrated to the US 20 years ago with her military husband and is now a naturalised American.
Scared to death
She said she was "scared to death" that Obama and the Democrats will win control of the of presidency, the house and the Senate. Then the next four years would see America transformed into a socialist state. "I've never owned a gun. But I've told my husband that if Obama is elected, I want one in my house."
Shores was one of many who were critical of McCain for being "over-gentlemanly" in his attacks on Obama urging him to go in harder over what they believe are his opponent's links with extreme-left politics and terrorism. "I'm so upset," she said. "Every night I watch the TV and I'm shouting at McCain: 'Come on! You've got to say something. Do something!'"
Palin has already let it be known she thinks the campaign has lacked bite. Others have accused McCain of lurching from issue to issue, like a signalman uncertain which lever to pull so he pulls them all. It is only in the past fortnight that he appears finally to have found the right lever, and as even he admits, that came about almost by chance. If Obama had not bumped into Samuel Wurzelbacher in Holland, Ohio, they would never have started a conversation in which the Democrat talked about his desire to "spread wealth", Wurzelbacher would not have morphed into Joe the Plumber and McCain would still be floundering, in search of his voice.
"Senator Obama is running to be distributionist-in-chief; I'm running to be commander-in-chief," he told crowds this week. "Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth; I'm running to create more wealth."
At every stop the response from the faithful was as identical as his words. "Fight! Fight! Fight!" they chanted. "USA! USA! USA!" By uttering that oldest of conservative war cries - the clash between the individual and society - McCain had at last engaged with their fears.
But it has come so very late. The fight is almost over, the snapping all but done. Underdogs bear the name for a reason: they usually lose.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2008 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsWith victory in sight, wary Democrats don’t yet dare to believe
October 31st, 2008 Gary YoungeThe best way to experience an Obama rally is to listen to him while watching the audience. Barack Obama is, of course, impressive. His speeches, like his suits, are meticulously measured. In this final week they are tailored to consolidate rather than convince. Though he is reed-thin, he can fill an auditorium, stadium or park with his presence as well as with people. With a big smile full of white teeth, he looks like the most all-American candidate the Republican party has had the misfortune to attempt to dismiss as non-American and demonise as anti-American.
But the audience is something else. There are old black ladies dressed for church, whose hands palm up as if to pat the sky while their heads bow down, resonating points Obama makes, with hats perched on buns of salt-and-pepper hair. When he makes points that resonates their heads go down like as their hands go up, palms open, as though they are trying to pat the sky.
There are young white kids, their universities emblazoned on their hoodies, who roll their lower arms in big circles from the elbow as though showing appreciation at a football game. There are old white veterans who occasionally nod but otherwise stay seated while others rise. And there are black children held high on parents' shoulders so they can capture a moment they do not yet fully understand.
Contagious energy
The energy is contagious. Bettie Bell, 87, was swaying to Stevie Wonder's "Signed, Sealed, And Delivered" as she tells me she "never thought I'd see this day" when a black man might be president. Bell grew up in Mississippi and moved to Ohio when she was 20. "We couldn't vote back then. But this time I voted already ... The Bible says, 'One day a small nation will rise up.' Well it's our time and it feels wonderful."
The numbers are staggering. A capacity crowd of 4,900 in the civic centre in Canton, Ohio; 9,000 outside in the teaming rain in Chester, Pennsylvania; 35,000 at 11pm in Kissimmee, Florida.
To hear supporters talk, you would think they have come not out of volition, but compulsion. "I just had to be here," says Jeannie, who drove from West Palm Beach to Kissimmee to see Obama. "I can hardly believe I've come this far to go to a rally in the middle of the night. But it's history. I had to see it for myself at least once."
As the week drew to a close, the mood was torn between anticipation and anxiety. On the one hand, supporters feel as though they are on the verge of a great historical moment. On the other, they resist the complacency that could deny it to them. For the last 20 months they have been told to believe. With 72 hours to go, they dare not believe too much.
"After the last two times I just don't want to jinx it," says Susan Aylward, from Akron, Ohio. "Everything looks good. But I won't believe it until it actually happens."
In the parts of the country where the election will be decided, they've counted chickens before, and have no intention of doing it again. Chris Magoon, a field organiser in Canton, told people to "put the polls away" and reminded them that Ohio was lost in 2004 by just nine votes per precinct. When the pastor who delivered the convocation in Chester, Pennsylvania, the same morning said: "Lead us not into temptation," the sin he was referring to was hubris.
There is also the pervasive fear that Obama might be assassinated. Nobody says it out loud, but nobody needs to. The pastor who blessed the Chester rally called for God to "deliver us from evil that will harm any candidate". In Canton the clergyman looked for God to "Love him, carry him and keep him".
Then there are worries that the election will be stolen. The pastor in Canton prayed that "every voting machine will work correctly". Jeannie in Kissimmee shrugged at what surprises election day might bring. "It's Florida," she says. "You just never know."
And finally there is mistrust of polls that may mask racial prejudice. Rosa Scott of Canton, who is in her 70s, grew up in Montgomery, Alabama, and remembers the bus boycott lead by Martin Luther King. "Down there they let you know if they didn't like you. But here they're more sneaky with it."
Obama opened the last full week of campaigning in Ohio with his closing argument. It is a hybrid of the unifying themes that first gained him national attention - reassurance that his taxation policy will only affect the very wealthy, and his trademark call for change. He rose to prominence in 2004 because of his opposition to the war. But as he heads to the finish line four years later Iraq barely gets a mention.
The question in this election, he says, is not: "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" - referring to Ronald Reagan's now famous jibe at the Carter years. "We already know the answer to that. Will this country be better off four years from now?"
In a populist turn, he asks the audience: "How many of you earn less than $250,000 a year?" When they all put up their hands he continues, "Well, my tax policy won't cost you a dime."
Ridiculing McCain's claim that his "desire to spread the wealth" makes him a socialist, he said: "Lately, they've been calling me a socialist and they found evidence that when I was in kindergarten I used to share my toys, and in the fourth grade I split my peanut butter sandwich and they said look, he's a redistributionist ... There's nothing wrong with looking out for other people." The Florida crowd starts a chant of "O-bama".
As he flies around the country, local and national events provide him with a strong tailwind. On the day he came to Ohio, the Cleveland Plain Dealer's front page was about Friday's collapse of Ohio's largest bank, National City. The next day the Philadelphia Inquirer showcased the conviction of Alaska's Republican senator, Ted Stevens, on six counts of ethics violations, bringing the possibility of a filibuster-proof Senate one vote closer.
As he took to the stage in Kissimmee, the Orlando Sentinel reported that polling hours had been extended to cater for the unprecedented surge in early voting, with registered Democrats overrepresented and African Americans punching almost twice their demographic weight at the booths.
For all the caveats, caution, denial and downplay, Obama's itinerary explains why he has every reason to be confident. With the exception of Pennsylvania, Obama has spent the last week travelling in states George Bush won in 2004. He needs 18 more electoral college votes than Kerry to win.
He hasn't been behind in a poll in Iowa (seven votes) since he accepted the nomination, nor in New Mexico (five) in seven weeks. He has led in Virginia (13) and Colorado (nine) for the past month, and Florida (27), Ohio (20) and Nevada (five) for at least the last week. He is mounting challenges in North Carolina and Missouri.
Tightening race
He only needs one or two of these polls to be right to win. His team expect the race to tighten in these final days. But for him to lose, there would have to be a full-scale, last-minute reversal.
With Bill Clinton by his side in Florida for the first time, the Democratic party's generational baton-change is almost complete. Leaving the stadium in the dead of night, the weight of expectation is evident in the T-shirts on sale. Some bear a socialist-realist print of Obama's face with a single word like Hope, Progress, Believe or Change. One shows Obama and Martin Luther King with the message: "Dreams we can believe in". Another has him dressed like a secret service agent and "Mission Possible".Yet another in Spanish says: "Nosotros creemos en el cambio" (We believe in change).
With only three days left to sell, hawkers scour the crowd for people who might yet buy. They've bought his message. But will they wear it? It's five to midnight. He's closed his arguments. Now he has to close the deal.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2008 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsObama takes campaign into Republican heartland
October 31st, 2008 Ewen MacAskill and Suzanne Goldenberg in WashingtonBarack Obama's team demonstrated its confidence of victory by yesterday announcing it is to extend its campaign deep into the Republican heartland, even into John McCain's home state Arizona.
While warning against complacency, Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, yesterday told reporters he was "thrilled" by the support for the Democratic candidate among early voters. "The die is being cast as we speak," he said. "We think we have built up an advantage in all the states, so that Senator McCain on election day is not just going to have to carry the day, but carry it convincingly."
But McCain's camp, defiant of Obama's poll leads and the US media, which has all but written him off, claimed McCain was on the verge of a surprise result.
"We're pretty jazzed up about what we're seeing," his campaign manager, Rick Davis, told reporters. "We are witnessing, I believe, one of the greatest comebacks since John McCain won the primary."
With strong Democratic turnout in early voting, Obama's team expects to hold all the states that John Kerry won in 2004 and add Republican states from Colorado to Virginia. They are to advertise in Arizona for the first time, and are putting fresh resources into Georgia and North Dakota. The decision to target Arizona may be designed to try to spook McCain, who has not campaigned in his home state, assuming it was solid. Florida, one of the states that has decided past elections, remains too close to call.
Plouffe described the Obama campaign as building to a crescendo this weekend, with 1.4 million volunteers in 770 offices. Early voting figures have raised their hopes of taking Georgia, which has been a no-go area for Democrats. Obama was set to take a break from campaigning last night to take his daughters out for Halloween, but he is due to visit eight states in a final burst of campaigning before election day on November 4, and Al Gore yesterday made an emotional return to Florida, where his hopes for the White House evaporated in the 2000 elections.
The McCain camp, meanwhile, is diverting resources to a last-minute advertising blitz. Mike DuHaime, a McCain adviser, said canvassers had contacted 5.3 million potential voters over the last week, either by phone or in person, compared with 1.9 million at the same stage in 2004. McCain will spend the weekend canvassing in Virginia and New Hampshire. DuHaime disputed a poll in the New York Times suggesting McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin, was a drag on his campaign - with 59% saying she was not ready to be president. He said she had attracted 20,000 to a rally on Thursday, in contrast with 800 for Obama's running mate, Joe Biden.
But a longtime McCain ally and former Republican cabinet member, Lawrence Eagleburger, speaking on National Public Radio on Thursday was categorical in saying Palin was not up for the job.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2008 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsJulian Borger on likely effect of an Obama presidency on the Middle East
October 31st, 2008 Julian BorgerMiddle East diplomacy is not the natural home of optimism, but even among jaded veterans of the region there is a faint sense of opportunity in the air. You might even call it hope.
It is not just the widespread expectation that Barack Obama will win the US presidential race on Tuesday, and the fact that anyone with Hussein as a middle name is likely to come to the Arab world with a natural advantage.
More importantly, there are consistent reports from America that work on the transition to a new administration is already underway. This is critical because when Bill Clinton first entered the Oval Office in 1993 and again with the current incumbent in 2001, it took the best part of a year for them to get their foreign policy teams in position.
The Obama camp is determined to learn from those mistakes and hit the ground running if its man wins. There are also signs that rapid progress in the Middle East is central to its agenda for the first 100 days. Some in Washington tip Dennis Ross, Bill Clinton's Middle East envoy, for a senior post, perhaps even national security adviser. That would send a powerful signal of intent.
That signal and the surrounding air of urgency will be needed. If Obama wins, he is unlikely to have the luxury of easing himself into the job at home or abroad. Those crises that have not already detonated will be flying at him fast and from all directions. There is a feeling, at least in the Foreign Office here in London, that if there is to be a window of opportunity to reshape the Middle East, it is unlikely to be open for long. In fact, the diplomats reckon, Obama will have under a year.
The thinking goes like this. If the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, manages to negotiate a year's extension to his presidency with the support of the Arab League, then he will have a mandate until January 2010 to negotiate a deal. Hamas could try to torpedo his efforts, but for the time being, the uneasy calm in Gaza seems to be serving its political interests. We might know more on how the land lies after Fatah-Hamas talks due in Egypt on November 9.
There are other pieces of the Middle East puzzle also in motion. When the Syrian foreign minister, Walid Mualem, came to London this week, most of the attention was focused on a US special forces raid inside the Syrian border the day before, apparently aimed at an insurgent smuggling network. However, most of the talk over the course of three hours behind closed doors in London was of the potential for a Syrian-Israeli peace agreement. Mualem left the impression that Damascus was in the market for negotiations and that it did not see an alliance with Iran as good long-term plan for Syria's future.
That is the smooth-tongued Mualem speaking. There are "securocrats" back in Damascus who think differently, but the foreign minister appears to have outdone the hardline vice-president Farouk al-Sharaa in the battle for Bashar al-Assad's ear. Back channel talks among ex-officials and businessmen from the two countries do not seem to be going anywhere at present, but they could be reinvigorated if there was fresh energy coming from Washington.
There are said to be some in Damascus who believe Syrian influence in Lebanon is now a more vital goal than repossession of the Golan Heights. But Saudi Arabia and Egypt are adamantly opposed to Lebanon slipping back into Syria's grasp. The Golan Heights plus foreign investment and open doors in the west is what is on offer, and all that would be hard for President Assad to turn down.
If there was some momentum along the Israeli-Palestinian track and the Israeli-Syrian track, perhaps at the same time that a new administration in Washington engaged directly with Iran, then as one senior British official put it: "You can begin to see an alternative architecture growing up".
There is plenty that could go wrong with this sketchy scenario. Obama might not win. Abbas might not get his year's extension. The supreme hawk Binyamin Netanyahu is well-positioned to win elections in Israel (although European officials argue that would not necessarily be a deal-breaker as "Bibi" has always been as much an opportunist as an ideologue).
Hope might be too strong a word, after all, but everything is relative. Conditions aren't great, as a European veteran of the region put it. "But this is the Middle East. Things are never great."
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2008 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsGary Younge: Me, my son and Obama: one father’s story
October 31st, 2008 Gary YoungeThe day we brought my new-born son home to our Brooklyn apartment, an article in the New York Times pointed out that "a black male who drops out of high school [in the US] is 60 times more likely to find himself in prison than one with a bachelor's degree". These are the kind of statistics I often quote in my work. But this time it was personal. Looking down at him as he snoozed in the brand new car seat, I thought: "Those are not great odds. I'd better buy some more children's books."
Over the next few weeks, as we fumbled with the nappies, pram, barfing and burping, a new, previously unthinkable option for black American males emerged: the presidency of the United States. Osceola was born on the weekend Barack Obama declared his candidacy. This prompted conversations that I would not have had otherwise. His success, I was told, would signify great things for my son. Osceola would grow up with an assumption that the highest office in the land was open to him. That the future could be his. That there was, I was told, nothing that this child could not achieve.
Back in February 2007, when Obama announced his candidacy, this never made much sense to me. The fact that my son suddenly has a tiny theoretical chance of getting to the White House is less important than the more real chance of his ending up behind bars (one in three black American boys born in 2001 will do so) or dead (three black kids are shot every day). I wanted a president who could change the odds for the many rather than raise the stakes for a few. I didn't care what they looked like. It wasn't that I didn't understand the symbolic importance of his bid. I just did not want to mistake it for substance.
On a political level, I have always thought he was interesting. Obama's announcement came 18 months after hurricane Katrina put black America's collective deprivation and individual success clearly on display. One man can rise to the presidency and a whole community can sink into the Gulf of Mexico: anything, I thought, really is possible. And with three days to go before election day, it looks like the US stands on the verge of making the historic decision to put a black man in the White House.
This was no reflection on Obama. Everything I'd heard about him - not least his opposition to the Iraq war at a time when such a position was unpopular - was impressive. But his two years in the Senate suggested he was pretty mainstream and even, at times, a little suspect. He'd supported Joseph Lieberman (a Democrat who is now supporting John McCain) in his primary Senate campaign against an anti-war campaigner. And he voted to confirm Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state. It wasn't obvious to me that he would be any better than some other generic Democrat with different pigmentation. The idea that his presidency would mean anything for Osceola's life never really crossed my mind.
To express such scepticism before many Obama supporters was to be accused of cynicism. The true believers do not just want you to drink the Kool Aid. They demand that you chug it.
The people my scepticism vexed most were white liberals. Obama had become prey to the soft bigotry of unreasonable expectations. Describing the crowd's reaction to him in Rockford, Illinois, Time's Joe Klein noted: "The African Americans tend to be fairly reserved ... The white people, by contrast, are out of control." They had found a black politician they felt comfortable with, and wanted him to be everything: Martin Luther King, John F Kennedy, a griot, president, vice-president, motherhood and apple pie. They prattled on about a post-racial America as though the Jena Six never happened and Sean Bell, a unarmed black man from Queens who was riddled with bullets on his wedding day, was still alive.
My wife, who is African American, shared my reservations about Obama, but saw things differently. She remembers the thrill of being a young girl when the black Democrat Harold Washington was elected in her hometown, Chicago. She liked him because her parents liked him. She could see it was important, but she didn't know why.
"My dad grew up being told a black person couldn't be a pilot, and my son is growing up knowing that a black person can be president," she said. "It's not that racism is gone, it's just that it's not about the idea that all black people are excluded on the basis of their race from any part of society or any particular job. That was the racism my parents grew up with and that is now one generation removed from Osceola." Her dad became a pilot, as did her brother.
Of course, Obama isn't standing for Osceola's benefit - which is just as well, because if Osceola could vote he would most likely support Elmo for mayor of Sesame Street. But in a sense these projections lie at the heart of any thoughtful appraisal of the racial dynamics underpinning Obama's candidacy. The desire to believe we are in a paradigm-shifting moment must be set against the fact that not every historic first changes the course of history. Changing our understanding of what is possible doesn't, in itself, create new possibilities.
I watched Obama accept the Democratic nomination with my mother-in-law, Janet, in a cinema on the southside of Chicago. Janet was raised in the South with the laws that put her at the back of the bus. As a teenager she went with her mother to see Martin Luther King speak in Philadelphia, listening in the overflow in the vestry because there were too many people in the church.
She was the one who first told me about Obama in 2003. She got involved in his primary campaign for the Senate when he didn't have a prayer, after she'd seen him on the local public channel, when he was a state senator. "He seemed like a bright guy," she says. "He reasoned his way through things and was always very impressive." She particularly liked his stance on the war. When he said he was running for Senate, she signed up as a volunteer.
And now, here we were just five years later seeing him clinch the deal in Denver on the big screen. At one point, when he recalled his anti-war speech in 2002, she punched my arm. "I was there." As she drove me to my hotel, she would occasionally say to no one in particular: "I just don't believe it."
Whether Osceola would ever be able to relate to what a momentous time this is for Janet remains to be seen. But her response made me think that the late comedian George Carlin was wrong. Symbols are too important to be left to the symbol-minded. By that time, my thinking on Obama had evolved. Not so much because of the man, but the moment. The atmosphere during this campaign has been unlike anything I've ever seen in a western country. To see so many people - particularly young people - engaged and hopeful about their political future after eight depressing years is inspiring. The last time I saw it was in South Africa's first democratic elections in 1994.
Walking down Sumter Street during Charleston's Martin Luther King day parade, watching white volunteers chant: "Obama '08! We're ready. Why wait?" gave political voice to an America I never doubted existed, but had yet to see. Among them was a young man who was "so depressed" after Obama's New Hampshire defeat that he had dropped everything he had been doing in Guatemala and flown back to help out. Local African Americans lined the sidewalks, cheering encouragement. Obama's victory in Iowa had proved that a black candidacy was not a pipe dream.
It was a moment. Fleeting and maybe even fatuous. But nonetheless a political moment that produced hopeful human engagement. Within half an hour it had evaporated. The white volunteers went back to the office and black people went back to their homes in the poorest parts of town and waited for change. But that didn't mean it didn't happen or that it couldn't happen again. Nor was there anyone else who could make it happen.
A couple months later came Obama's race speech in Philadelphia in response to the attacks on his pastor, Jeremiah Wright, in which he addressed black alienation and white disadvantage, set them both in a historical context, and then called on people to rise above it. It was a tall order. He pulled it off.
That weekend, a friend invited us to brunch with a group of other black people to discuss the fallout. There were nine of us (10 if you include Osceola, who yanked a blind from the window). It was a typical boho (black bohemian) Brooklyn crowd of voluntary sector workers, teachers and the like. Most, like me, had been ambivalent about Obama at the outset. But his candidacy was becoming a vehicle for something bigger: a teachable moment about the potential of anti-racist discourse.
A year before, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, laid out a plan of attack against Obama. "All of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared towards showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light. Save it for 2050. It also exposes a strong weakness for him - his roots to basic American values and culture are at best limited. I cannot imagine America electing a president during a time of war who is not at his centre fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values ... Let's explicitly own 'American' in our programmes, the speeches and the values. He doesn't ... Let's use our logo to make some flags we can give out. Let's add flag symbols to the backgrounds."
Clinton rejected Penn's advice, but McCain pretty much adopted it. And at this point it appears to have failed. This time Republicans have misread white America's appetite for divisive racial rhetoric and overestimated its fear of the other. The fears and division are still there. But whatever the result on Tuesday, they are clearly no longer the decisive mobilising force they once were.
If there is promise in here for my son, it is not so much that he is capable of doing anything he wants - I am his father and it's my responsibility to teach him that - but that white people won't necessarily stop him. What that does for his odds of finishing high school or going to jail remains to be seen. In the meantime, I'm off to the bookshop.
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2008 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsUS Election Campaign Diary - Independent
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Public learns to handle new digital weapon
October 31st, 2008 Emily Bell"It's your BBC," the slogan used to run, imploring the audience to engage with the broadcaster. After five years of encouraging viewers and listeners to "have your say", "press the red button" and "leave a comment on our blog", the BBC this week found itself on the wrong end of what might be termed "interactivism".
More than 37,000 complaints about the infamous Russell Brand radio show led to resignations, inquiries, apologies and a few more cracks in the facade of Broadcasting House. Interactivism is changing the terms of engagement for media organisations, politicians, companies and individuals.
It may seem absurdly inappropriate to compare the significance of the US elections next week with the trivia of Jonathan Ross and Russell Brand mucking around on the radio, but both share this common thread.
Barack Obama may soon become the first politician to be carried to power by interactivism, in terms of funding and campaigning.
With half of his $500m (£303m) campaign fund coming from donations of less than $200 through internet fundraising, the Obama campaign has harnessed electronic media to devastating effect, and melded the idea of grassroots activism with instant feedback and visible networks.
If Obama has successfully harnessed the power of interactivism, Radio 2 is reeling from its impact.
When Brand's show first aired, two people complained. After a week, thanks to the huffing and puffing of the Daily Mail, the Sun - and the BBC's own echo chamber of 24-hour news - complaints had rocketed to more than 37,000. By complaining to the BBC and Ofcom, the public could join in a story. An odd and perhaps not very useful argument for public engagement but indisputably powerful.
Message boards, Facebook groups and phone-ins were deluged with protest over a wide range of issues; not least subjective dislike for either Brand or Ross or both.
It was unclear how many had heard the shows or extracts - it didn't matter. Complaint becomes a participation sport in a digital world, where totals are electronically tallied and regularly updated. Most importantly, by participating, the public expects to influence the outcome of events.
Just as television companies have built new audiences and revenues on encouraging us to vote on anything and everything, so they are now at risk of being undone by failing to understand the implications of interactivity which is not under their control.
This is where the Obama campaign is also instructive. The viral messages, email campaigns and rapid rebuttal which take on attacks at lightning speed are as much a part of team Obama's extraordinary success as the fundraising.
Technology is amoral and the connectivity which helps a civil rights movement can equally be the platform for a lynch mob. There is no implicit democracy in interactivism - the most organised and connected, the most vociferous and offended can tip the balance.
Online response is instant, and often lightly committed and should sometimes be treated as such. Perhaps next time the viral activism will be directed against corruption in politics or against social injustice.
• Emily Bell is director of digital content for Guardian News and Media
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